Fourth Quarter: Rivalry Week II; Mostly Here for the Spite
The Dash covered the most relevant games of Rivalry Week in the Third Quarter, but the slate is simply too vast to be contained in a single quarter. So here are the rest, with context and picks, as we work a little overtime this week:
Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (31)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Alabama leads 50-37-1. First: Auburn 32, Alabama 22, in 1893. Latest: Alabama 27, Auburn 24, last year. Upper hand: Alabama has won the last four, and nine of the last 11, and hasn’t lost to the Tigers in Tuscaloosa since the Cam Newton comeback game in 2010. Line: Alabama by 11.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: Alabama has a slim playoff chance floating out there, but the emotional payload of the Iron Bowl transcends that. Kalen DeBoer has not met exceeding expectations in Year 1, and things could still get a lot worse if he loses this game to 5–6 Auburn. Hugh Freeze finally delivered a big win last week as the Auburn coach, but he’s still trying to make up for giving up the fourth-and-31 play last year in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Dash pick: Alabama 19, Auburn 17.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Mississippi Rebels (32)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Friday. Series: Mississippi leads 65-49-6. First: Mississippi State 17, Mississippi 0, in 1901. Latest: Mississippi 17, Mississippi State 7, last year. Upper hand: Rebels have won three of the last four. Line: Mississippi by 25.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: Like the Crimson Tide, Ole Miss can still hold out faint playoff hope if it finishes 9–3 and another weekend of upset carnage ensues. More realistically, this is a chance to kick a Dog when it’s down—Mississippi State is the worst team in the SEC. Disappointed Ole Miss fans could at least take some satisfaction in a blowout win here, while downtrodden State fans would love to shock the world and salvage something from a lost season.
Dash pick: Mississippi 49, Mississippi State 17.
Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks (33)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Washington leads 63-48-5. First: Oregon 43, Washington 0, in 1900. Latest: Washington 34, Oregon 31, in the second of two meetings last year, with a playoff bid on the line. Upper hand: Huskies have won three straight, but under different leadership. Line: Oregon by 19, per DraftKings.
Stakes: The Ducks are in such good shape that they can lose the game and still be in the playoff—but if they lose this the Big Ten championship game, a first-round bye and/or first-round home playoff game could both be lost. At least. Oregon undoubtedly feels like it owes Washington some payback for three consecutive three-point losses, and the Huskies are a bad road team. Look out.
Dash pick: Oregon 34, Washington 10.
Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions (34)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Penn State leads 43-3-1. First: Penn State 57, Maryland 0, in 1917. Latest: Penn State 51, Maryland 15, last year. Upper hand: Nittany Lions have always been the hammer; Terrapins have always been the nail. Line: Penn State by 24.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: This is a pseudo-rivalry, with a couple of long gaps between meetings and little competitiveness, but Penn State has played only three schools more often (Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia). Nittany Lions have all the motivation to beat the shell out of the Terps and maintain their playoff status.
Dash pick: Penn State 41, Maryland 14.
Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats (35)
When: Noon ET Saturday. Series: Kentucky leads 20–15. First: Kentucky 41, Louisville 0, in 1912. Latest: Kentucky 38, Louisville 31, last year. Upper hand: Kentucky has won five straight. Line: Louisville by 3.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: The Cardinals don’t have a playoff shot, but they can help their league’s quest for multiple (perhaps even three) bids by winning one of four ACC-SEC games this weekend. They also have a lot of galling recent history to try to atone for in this rivalry against a Kentucky team that has fallen apart.
Dash pick: Louisville 27, Kentucky 20.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes (36)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Friday. Series: Nebraska leads 30-21-3. First: Iowa 22, Nebraska 0, in 1891. Latest: Iowa 13, Nebraska 10, last year. Upper hand: Iowa has won eight of the last nine. Line: Iowa by 5.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: Not a lot beyond pride and hate, now that the Huskers have cleared the bowl eligibility threshold for the first time since 2016. This will be a frigid game marked by clouds of breath in the air and sideline cutaways of Kirk Ferentz enjoying every punt.
Dash pick: Iowa 17, Nebraska 12.
Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles (37)
When: 7 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Florida leads 37-28-2. First: Florida 21, Florida State 7, in 1958. Latest: Florida State 24, Florida 15, last year. Upper hand: FSU has won the last two and five of the last nine. Line: Florida by 15, per DraftKings.
Stakes: The Gators circled the wagons the last two weeks and became the SEC’s own worst enemy, all but eliminating LSU and Ole Miss from playoff contention. They displayed all the pride and resilience that the Seminoles have flagrantly lacked all season. If you’re waiting for them to show something, that ship sailed in September.
Dash pick: Florida 31, Florida State 14.
North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels (38)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: North Carolina leads 68-39-6. First: North Carolina 44, North Carolina State 0, in 1894. (The two played again eight days later, and the Tar Heels won again.) Latest: North Carolina State 39, North Carolina 20, last year. Upper hand: The Wolfpack have won three in a row and six of the last eight. Line: North Carolina by 3.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: The Wolfpack (5–6) are striving for bowl eligibility for the 10th time in 12 seasons under Dave Doeren. The Tar Heels (6–5) are looking for a rallying point after being upset in the field hockey Final Four. (That’s a joke. Mostly.)
Dash pick: NC State 35, North Carolina 33.
Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies (39)
When: 8 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Virginia Tech leads 61-38-5. First: Virginia 38, Virginia Tech 0, in 1895. Latest: Virginia Tech 55, Virginia 17, last year. Upper hand: The Hokies have won three in a row and 17 of the last 18. Line: Virginia Tech by 7.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: They both have identical records: 5–6 overall, 3–4 in the ACC. Which means the winner goes to a bowl game and the loser wallows in misery. Brent Pry and Tony Elliott, struggling third-year coaches, both could really use a rally-the-base victory.
Dash pick: Virginia Tech 33, Virginia 27.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats (40)
When: Noon ET Saturday. Series: Illinois leads 57-55-5. First: A 16–16 tie in 1892. Latest: Northwestern 45, Illinois 43, last year. Upper hand: The Wildcats regained ownership of the stovepipe hat that goes to the winners, and have captured six of the last eight meetings. Line: Illinois by 7.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: The Illini are shooting for their first nine-win season since 2007 and first end-of-season top 25 ranking since then, as well. The Wildcats are trying to beat an opponent with a pulse for the first time since Labor Day weekend.
Dash pick: Illinois 28, Northwestern 18.
Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (41)
When: Noon ET Saturday. Series: Duke leads 60-41-2. First: Duke 8, Wake Forest 4, in 1889. Latest: Duke 24, Wake Forest 21, last year. Upper hand: The Blue Devils have won two straight and seven of the last 11. Line: Duke by 4, per DraftKings.
Stakes: The Blue Devils are trying to complete the Tobacco Road sweep of North Carolina, NC State and Wake Forest. They also can reach nine regular-season wins for the first time in a decade. The Demon Deacons are shooting for their first home win since Aug. 29.
Dash pick: Duke 37, Wake Forest 31.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Missouri Tigers (42)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Series: Missouri leads 11–4, in what has become an arranged rivalry in the SEC era but really didn’t exist before that. First: Missouri 11, Arkansas 0, in 1906. Latest: Missouri 48, Arkansas 14, last year. Upper hand: Tigers have won the last two and seven of the last eight. Line: Missouri by 3.5, per DraftKings.
Stakes: Mizzou (8–3) is shooting for its best two-season record in a decade, currently standing 19–5 in 2023 and ’24. The Hogs (6–5) are trying to finish .500 in the SEC for the first time since ’21 and gather some optimism heading into ’25.
Dash pick: Missouri 28, Arkansas 24.
Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week
Billy Napier (43), Florida Gators. The entire world had him fired after a 1–2 start to his third season, yet here he is. Napier has had to start three quarterbacks, deal with a plague of injuries and endure the toughest schedule in the SEC, but he’s a victory over miserable Florida State away from his first winning record at Florida. Staying the course with Napier is (tentatively) paying off.
Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work
David Braun (44), Northwestern Wildcats. The offensively futile Michigan Wolverines hadn’t scored more than 30 points all season, then they dropped 50 on Braun’s team. That included 40 in the final 30 minutes and eight seconds, as Northwestern fell apart. Braun did incredible work last year as the interim coach in a difficult setting, but hasn’t followed it up too well in his first season as the full-time boss.
Point After
When hungry and thirsty and in need of college football on TV in the greater Cincinnati area, The Dash recommends a visit to Smoke Justis (45) across the Ohio River in Covington, Ky. The TV setup is great, and the menu is intriguing. Try the brisket chili, which pairs well with a hefeweizen from Cincy’s West Side Brewing, and thank The Dash later.
