The College Football Playoff committee has given the nation its first true barometer of the 2024 season by releasing the opening edition of the CFP rankings this week. Certain truths remain like the fact that being a blueblood still matters, while newcomers like BYU, Indiana and SMU will have to overcome the burden of preseason expectations to truly earn respect among the country’s elite.
Regardless of exact positioning, the committee did help college football fans home in on what programs are the most important to keep an eye on in the final four weeks of the regular season. Even still there’s so much to track, which is why watchability rankings will continue—with a playoff-centric twist.
From now until the end of the regular season, this space will be dedicated to the games that have the biggest impact on the CFP race. Whether it be teams jockeying for position to make their conference championship game (like the Big 12) or programs fighting to hold on in one of the nation’s most competitive leagues (like in the SEC), this list will point out games worth watching, both from an appeasing-to-the-eye perspective and meaningfulness standpoint.
That said, not game that could have an impact on the playoff field will make the list of the week’s best games going forward. Just because one-win Purdue, which is a 38-point underdog to Ohio State this weekend, gets to play a team in the playoff field doesn’t guarantee the matchup time in the spotlight.
With that out of the way, let’s get into Week 11’s key games:
10. No. 4 Miami Hurricanes (9–0) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5–4)
The Hurricanes getting into the ACC championship game may feel like a foregone conclusion, but the volatility of this team bears keeping an eye on. Just last week, Miami trailed Duke, 28–17, early in the third quarter only to outscore the Blue Devils 36–3 the rest of the way.
Georgia Tech hasn’t been the same team without quarterback Haynes King, who is still considered day-to-day as of earlier this week. The Yellow Jackets will need some sort of boost on offense if they hope to keep pace Saturday after scoring a combined 19 points against Notre Dame and Virginia Tech the last two weeks.
Even if King can’t play, Brent Key’s defense ranks third in the ACC in yards allowed and fifth in points allowed per game. No one has provided much, if any, resistance to Heisman Trophy candidate Cam Ward and Miami’s offense (first in FBS in points and yards per game), but Georgia Tech stands as the last real possible challenger to try and interrupt the Canes’ unbeaten regular season.
9. Arkansas State Red Wolves (5–3) at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (7–1)
The margin for error in the Group of 5 playoff race is much smaller than it is for the top Power 4 schools, making for a tighter pool of teams still conceivably in the mix for the final automatic bid. If No. 12 Boise State, the clear favorite at this point going into a favorable matchup at home vs. Nevada, drops another game or somehow doesn’t win the Mountain West, the door is open.
Keep an eye on what Louisiana does the rest of this season. The top team in the Sun Belt has just one loss to Tulane (another top G5 program that’s still lurking) and a recipe of defense (32nd in FBS) plus rushing attack (three RBs averaging more than six yards per carry) that would seem sustainable to close out the rest of the conference.
But awaiting the Ragin’ Cajuns this week is a Red Wolves group that’s the biggest competition in the Sun Belt’s West Division. Other than a blowout loss to Texas State on the road in early October, Arkansas State has only dropped games this season to Michigan and Iowa State. The program wins close (5–0 in one-score games) and could be a real thorn in Louisiana’s side.
8. Michigan Wolverines (5–4) at No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers (9–0)
Curt Cignetti already has Indiana off to a program-best start and only one barrier remains before a showdown with Ohio State in two weeks. If the Hoosiers win Saturday, a spot in the playoff still seems likely, even with the harsh initial ranking and even if the Buckeyes knock them out of the Big Ten championship game.
Kurtis Rourke returned from a thumb injury in style last week, throwing for four touchdowns with zero interceptions against Michigan State, but it’s reasonable to expect Michigan to put up more resistance defensively. The Wolverines haven’t been as stout (47th in yards allowed and 57 in points allowed per game), but it’s still the offense (127th out of 133 in FBS) that’s the real problem.
Indiana has only scored fewer than 40 points twice this season, so if Michigan can somehow keep the lid on the Hoosiers’ offense, this game could get far more interesting than it looks on paper.
7. No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones (7–1) at Kansas Jayhawks (2–6)
The Big 12 began to show real cracks last week when Kansas State and Iowa State both lost to unranked opponents in Houston and Texas Tech, respectively. The field of which teams can make the championship game has reasonably expanded to include half the conference, with eight teams sitting within one game of second place going into Week 11.
The Cyclones hold at least a share of second-place at 4–1, but walk from one trap into another on the road in Lawrence. Kansas might be 2–6, but five losses have come by six points or fewer. Jalon Daniels hasn’t been as sharp this season, but running back Devin Neal is having another sensational year on the ground with 758 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games.
The Jayhawks may not have the same pop on offense as the Red Raiders, but if Iowa State’s offense can’t reliably finish drives—last week’s loss featured two turnovers, a turnover on downs at the Texas Tech 24-yard line and a late missed field goal—watch out for an upset that will further shake up the conference standings.
6. Washington Huskies (5–4) at No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (7–1)
After grumbling about not getting to play at night against Ohio State, Penn State fans will get their wish for a “white out” a week later against Washington. James Franklin’s program needs to ensure its skid doesn’t extend beyond one game, especially with the path to the Big Ten championship game now considerably more muddled.
The Nittany Lions, much like Indiana, might not have the strength of schedule to overcome a second loss and Washington could provide a trick test. The Huskies have struggled considerably when traveling across time zones this season (0–3 in games at Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana), but perhaps Jedd Fisch’s squad will have acclimated by the time the sun goes down before kickoff.
Washington has talent on offense—QB Will Rogers, WR Denzel Boston and RB Jonah Coleman to name a few—but self-inflicted mistakes have greatly wounded the Huskies this season. With a bowl berth on the line, last year’s national runner-ups need to stay out of their own way to have a chance in Happy Valley.
5. No. 25 Army Black Knights (8–0) at North Texas Mean Green (5–3)
In this week’s G5 game of the week, the Black Knights, fresh off of getting a raw deal from the CFP committee, will be eager to make a statement before a meeting with Notre Dame in two weeks. Army cruised to a low-scoring victory over 1–7 Air Force last week without starting quarterback Bryson Daily. Head coach Jeff Monken said this week the team is still evaluating if Daily, who has 26 total touchdowns this season, will play vs. North Texas.
Playing the Mean Green is an adventure, as just about every one of their opponents this year can say. With the third-most productive offense (527.6 yards per game), North Texas is designed to outscore teams behind the arm of quarterback Chandler Morris, who boasts 2,873 yards and 26 touchdowns in eight games. The defense, however, is lacking, having allowed nearly 37 points per contest (127th in FBS).
Army has the defense to curtail Morris and the Mean Green, but there’s no denying the Black Knights will need to put points on the board to win. This stands to be one of the most interesting games of the week stylistically—Army’s ground game vs. North Texas’s air attack.
4. No. 9 BYU Cougars (8–0) at Utah Utes (4–4)
Speaking of undefeated teams that will walk into a hornet’s nest this week, the Cougars might be feeling similarly snubbed after coming in behind five one-loss teams and finishing last among Power 4 undefeated teams in the first CFP rankings. No matter; if BYU handles its business, it can earn the Big 12’s automatic berth and a first-round bye in the postseason.
That being said, nothing is settled at the top of the league and the Cougars are going into battle against a Utah team that was considered by many to be the preseason favorite to earn the automatic bid. Another injury to quarterback Cam Rising and four straight close losses to conference opponents have all but sealed the Utes’ fate, but the group still boasts a top-15 defense that hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in a game this season.
Expect this one to be close and low scoring, unlike one of the Big 12 games on the slate still to come on this list. If you’re staying up late Saturday on the East Coast, keep an eye on Salt Lake City for a possible top-10 shake-up.
3. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (7–1) at No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels (7–2)
The Bulldogs got beat out by the Buckeyes in the first set of rankings, but still were given a generous spot, likely based on wins over Clemson and Texas. Anyone who has watched this Georgia team doesn’t feel nearly as confident as the committee seems to be about its standing this season.
Quarterback Carson Beck has been inconsistent at best dating back to the Alabama loss. Though the yardage numbers are eye-popping, he’s thrown 11 interceptions in his last five games, including three picks in each of three of those contests. The defense was tenacious in the win at Texas but has shown it’s susceptible—as it might be this week against one of the best offenses in the country.
When the Rebels are right, they’re one of the best teams on paper. Jaxson Dart has been sharp and the offense is a top-five unit in the country, coming off of a 63-point explosion at Arkansas. But a head-scratching loss to Kentucky looms large as a blemish on the resume and now Ole Miss is fighting for its playoff life every week, even if Georgia is the final challenge left on the schedule.
A win Saturday could be career-defining for Lane Kiffin, not to mention that it would throw yet another wrench in the SEC title race. A loss could mean an end to the Rebels’ playoff hopes.
2. No. 20 Colorado Buffaloes (6–2) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (6–3)
From now until the end of the season, it would appear that at least a few Big 12 games will make this list. The headliner for the conference in Week 11 would likely make the rankings even if it didn’t have playoff ramifications, as Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes head to Lubbock to take on a Texas Tech team that just beat the No. 11 team in the country.
Apart from a narrow loss to Kansas State, Colorado has gone through Big 12 play unscathed and the defense has given quarterback Shedeur Sanders plenty of support. Still, the Buffs are susceptible to the run (79th in rushing yards allowed per game) and that’s an area the Red Raiders stand to exploit. Running back Tahj Brooks has been consistently lethal this season, racking up 1,047 yards and 10 scores.
The buzz around Colorado hasn’t felt as palpable this season, despite a dramatic improvement in performance in Year 2 of Coach Prime. That would change with a win this weekend.
1. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (6–2) at No. 15 LSU Tigers (6–2)
We might be in the heart of college football season but this feels more like an NCAA basketball tournament game. Win or go home—at least from playoff contention.
Neither of these teams would have fancied themselves being in this position with four games still left to play. But that’s what losses to Vanderbilt, for the Crimson Tide, and a 4–5 USC team, for the Tigers, will do. The margin for error for playoff hopeful teams might be larger than ever, but not that large.
Apart from the fact that this is perennially one of the SEC’s most exciting rivalry games, this particular matchup looks wildly entertaining. LSU’s tenacious defense, which gets after the quarterback as well as any unit in the country, will have to keep Jalen Milroe in check. Milroe is one of the most dynamic signal-callers in the country with 12 rushing touchdowns to pair with 13 through the air, but he’s also been more mistake prone across the last five games (five passing touchdowns to six interceptions). He got back on track, as did the Alabama defense in a 34–0 rout of Missouri last week, but the Tigers’ defense presents a much trickier challenge.
With playoff survival on the line, Kalen DeBoer and Brian Kelly are surely aware of what’s at stake. One coach will be able to use Saturday’s result as a leaping off point for a run through an easier stretch to close the season and possibly into the field of 12. The other will have to answer some tough questions about what happened this year.
