I might be one of the few people not complaining about scoring being down this season because favoring under bets again provided winning results for me.
I went 4–1 for my best over/under NFL bets last week. Oh, and I went 12–2 overall for my game picks in Week 9. Yes, I’m bragging, but also allow me the time to complain about my one over/under bet that didn’t hit last week.
The one loss was an over bet, another reason to continue favoring the under. I wrongly predicted a shootout would occur between the Dolphins and Chiefs in Germany last week. I ignored the Chiefs’ lack of scoring this season and the Dolphins’ struggles to generate points against teams with winning records. I guess I really wanted to see a thrilling back-and-forth battle between two of the best teams in the AFC.
But all we can do is learn from our mistakes. Here are the five best over/under bets this week (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
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1. Colts (4–5) at Patriots (2–7)Over/Under: 43.5Prediction: Under
It would be funny and somewhat annoying for personal reasons if the Colts and Patriots give football fans in Germany the high-scoring affair they expected from the Chiefs and Dolphins last week. But I don’t see that happening because of Mac Jones and the Patriots’ dreadful offense. Jones made many costly mistakes in last week’s loss against the Commanders. New England was held to 17 points and 327 total yards against a defense that has had issues stopping the pass this season. The Commanders also didn’t have edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat because they were traded earlier in the week. I get the Colts have struggled defensively, but this Patriots’ offense has been bad in most games this season. I do have concerns about the Colts lighting up the Patriots’ defense because they have scored 20 points or more in every game this season.
2. Saints (5–4) at Vikings (5–4)
The Vikings scored a season-high 31 points during Joshua Dobbs’s sensational performance in the win against the Falcons last week. Minnesota has a lengthy list of injuries, but it has won four consecutive games and has averaged 24 points per game in that span. Count on the Dobbs-led Vikings to put up points against a tough Saints’ defense. As for the Saints’ offense, they have finally established an identity with Derek Carr as the quarterback. Carr has gotten many playmakers involved in the past month, including Taysom Hill, who has emerged as a dangerous red-zone option because of his versatility. New Orleans has scored 24 points or more in the past three games, including 38 against the Colts in Week 8. I don’t expect a shootout because both teams have productive defenses, but they can certainly generate enough points to surpass this low total line.
3. Texans (4–4) at Bengals (5–3)Over/Under: 47.5Prediction: Over
It would not surprise me if Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is able to craft a game plan to somewhat contain sensational rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who dropped 470 passing yards and five touchdowns in last week’s comeback win vs. the Buccaneers. But Stroud has set the bar so high that his underwhelming performances can still lead to 20-plus points and over 300 passing yards. I’m expecting a game in which the Bengals jump to an early double-digit advantage and are forced to sweat at the end because of a late Texans’ rally. Stroud got the spotlight for completing the comeback against Tampa Bay, but the Texans’ defense allowed 37 points to Baker Mayfield and his offense. Look for Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow to deliver a handful of touchdowns against a young Texans’ defense. Cincinnati is on a four-game winning streak and has averaged 26.5 points per game in that span. But Burrow might be without Ja’Marr Chase, who’s dealing with a back injury.
4. Falcons (4–5) at Cardinals (1–8)Over/Under: 43.5Prediction: Under
You gotta take the under for a total line over 40 points in a game involving the Cardinals, who were just shutout 27–0 against the Browns. The Cardinals have scored 16 points or less in five games this season. And yes, Kyler Murray is expected to make his season debut, but he might need a game or two to regain his form after spending the past year recovering from a torn ACL. Murray also has to play against a quality Falcons defense. Atlanta just allowed 31 points to Dobbs and the Vikings, but they have had a few impressive performances this season (they’re allowing 21.3 points per game). The Falcons’ offense is only averaging 18.4 points per game. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has been better than Desmond Ridder, but he hasn’t been a drastic upgrade for Atlanta.
5. Commanders (4–5) at Seahawks (5–3)
I’ve been critical of quarterback Sam Howell, but I gotta give him credit for racking up yards in the passing game (2,471) and for keeping Washington competitive in most games. But Howell has issues with turning the ball over (nine interceptions) and taking too many sacks—two areas that might be exposed in a hostile environment against a talented Seahawks defense, which features the cornerback duo of Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen. Coincidentally, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith has had the same issues as Howell. Smith has turned the ball over eight times in the past four games. The Seahawks had a poor performance in the 37–3 loss to the Ravens last week.
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